Tara O'Brien's Minneapolis Real Estate Update: December 2011

With the U.S. economy still struggling, over half of Americans (54 percent) aren’t sure the President can stabilize the housing market over the next year, according to Trulia’s latest consumer survey on American attitudes on housing policy.

Harris Interactive conducted this online survey on Trulia’s behalf and asked more than 2,000 Americans what signals will give them confidence that the housing market is getting back on track.

Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist, says, “Americans won’t believe our economy is improving until they see real proof.” Luckily for agents, the proof that consumers are looking for lies in key data points that agents can present to clients to help give them the confidence to buy:


1. Fewer defaults and foreclosures
“Fewer defaults and foreclosures” tops the list as a key factor indicating recovery, suggesting that consumers will be more confident in the market’s recovery if they believe that their neighborhood as a whole is doing better.

“As long as there are foreclosed homes and lingering for-sale signs in neighborhoods across the country, people are faced with constant, everyday reminders that the housing market is still struggling,” says Kolko. For real estate professionals, showing potential clients and customers local statistics on decreases in defaults can be a major tool in building the confidence consumers need to make a market move.

2. More home sales
The survey data showed home sales matter the most next to defaults and foreclosures. With 38 percent of the votes, this data indicates that statistics showing increased home sales can be a major tool to get consumers to believe in the market’s recovery.

Soon, communicating local home sales data is about to become even more important because of a lingering National Association of Realtors’ revision to 2005-2011 national home sales data which will likely show national numbers have been to high due to inflation.

For agents who have local areas where sales have increased, data driven presentations can motivate clients who may be straddling the fence on the decision to purchase.

3. Fewer vacant homes
While empty homes mean opportunity, they are a downer when it comes to consumer confidence. ”Neighborhood vacancies are like second-hand smoke, hurting everyone around them,” says Kolko.

Survey data showed, with 32 percent of the responses, declines in vacancies are top confidence builders for consumers.

For agents, this means the value of placing a “sold” sign is not only a great moment for the buyer, but for the neighborhood as a whole. To track vacancies by states, check the U.S. Census Bureau’s quarterly release on home vacancies, which breaks down the information by both state and Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

4. Lower Mortgage Rates
The survey data says “lower mortgage rates” are another of the top five confidence builders and received 25 percent of votes. That means it’s important, not only to offer clients updates on the day-to-day changes in rates, but also to show the bigger picture.

When it comes down to visual representations of today’s market opportunity, mortgage rate changes over the past 30 years is probably one of the most dramatic graphs an agent can present to a client. To make your own graph of mortgage rates and see the dramatic change, visit Bankrate.com’s Graph Rate Trends Page.

5. Higher Homeownership Rates
Lastly, the survey showed nothing sells ownership like ownership. Higher Homeownership Rates received 23% of the votes when it came to building confidence among consumers.

This indicates that seeing reminders of sales activity in their area and ownership benefits are keys to motivate clients to make a move.
-Trulia

Last month, the number of homes for sale in the 13-county Twin Cities metropolitan area plunged nearly 24.0 percent from last year to 19,516 – the lowest November inventory reading since 2004. In addition, November 2011 marked only the third month in more than five years (68 months to be precise) where there was less than six months supply of inventory. Sellers listed 4,102 new homes on the market, down 13.6 percent from last year. Buyers entered into 3,321 purchase agreements, up 30.2 percent over November 2010.

"Despite the dramatic drop in inventory, prices are still bound by distressed activity, budget-conscious consumers and a general sense of economic uncertainty," said Brad Fisher, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS®. "Along with strong sales, these declines have moved absorption rates to levels only seen twice since 2006. This may have a considerable impact on the Spring 2012 market."

Some sellers are already starting to benefit from less competition. The share of asking price that sellers receive at sale has posted year-over-year increases for the fourth consecutive month. In November, sellers received an average of 90.9 percent of their asking price. That figure was likely helped by the 30.6 percent decrease in months supply of inventory – currently at 5.7 months. Generally, 5 to 6 months is considered balanced.

The median home price was down 10.1 percent from November 2010 to $149,250. Lender-mediated activity (foreclosures and short sales) comprised 44.1 percent of all closed sales and 41.9 percent of new listings.

The first and fourth quarters of the year tend to see the most distressed sales and listing activity. Consequently, traditional prices fell 9.2 percent to $187,400, foreclosure prices dropped 14.3 percent to $98,500 and short sale prices were down 11.5 percent to $130,000.

Market times were down 1.7 percent to 135 days, on average – the second year-over-year decrease in a row. The housing affordability index hit a new record high of 245, meaning that the median household income in the region was 245% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates.

"Prices don't reflect the improved supply-demand balance yet," said Cari Linn, MAAR President-Elect. "Although there are some reassuring patterns taking hold, it would be overly optimistic to say that all of the market's problems will be washed away by spring."

All information is according to the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) based on data from the Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota, Inc. MAAR is the leading regional advocate and provider of information services and research on the real estate industry for brokers, real estate professionals and the public. MAAR serves the Twin Cities 13-county metro area and western Wisconsin.

Tryptophan and chatty in-laws were not able to curb the appetite of local home buyers, as purchase activity easily gobbled up last year's levels. Sellers were apparently stuffed and lethargic, as they brought fewer new properties onto the market than during the same holiday week last year. As we approach the slowest time of year for residential activity, expect transacted dollar volumes and sales counts to weaken from the spring and summer of this year. Keep watching inventory declines; they could have a measurable impact on the Spring 2012 market.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending November 26:

• New Listings decreased 9.1% to 601
• Pending Sales increased 46.8% to 574
• Inventory decreased 22.8% to 20,318For the month of October:
• Median Sales Price decreased 9.6% to $154,500
• Days on Market decreased 0.5% to 134
• Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.9% to 91.2%
• Months Supply of Inventory decreased 27.6% to 6.3

For the month of October:

• Median Sales Price decreased 9.6% to $154,500
• Days on Market decreased 0.5% to 134
• Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.9% to 91.2%
• Months Supply of Inventory decreased 27.6% to 6.3
-MAAR

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There are several tax credits and deductions set to expire at the end of the year, and given the federal deficit problem, there's a good chance they won't be extended. If you want to take advantage of them, you need to act before Jan. 1, 2012.

Mortgage insurance premium deduction
If you itemize deductions, you may deduct the premiums you pay for mortgage insurance, just like you do mortgage interest. However, this deduction is phased out if your income exceeds certain levels. To qualify for the full deduction, a couple or a single taxpayer must have an adjusted gross income of $100,000 or less. The deduction is phased out completely if AGI exceeds $109,000.

This deduction, which was first enacted for 2007, is scheduled to expire at the end of 2011. Thus, your payments are deductible only if you pay them during 2011; a payment after 2011 is not deductible.

Education expenses deduction
A deduction of up to $4,000 for qualified education expenses is available for 2011. All or part of the amount you pay can be for classes beginning in 2012. But you must make your payments during 2011, because the deduction expires at the end of the year. This deduction is not available if your modified adjusted gross income is more than $80,000 ($160,000 if filing a joint return). Nor is it available if any of education tax credits are claimed.

Home energy credit
First, any homeowner may qualify for an energy credit of up to $500. You can qualify for the credit if you purchase during 2011 solar panels to generate electricity or for water heating, or install wind energy equipment, a geothermal heat pump, or certain types of fuel cells to generate electricity. The credit is up to 30 percent of the amount you spend, up to the $500 limit. This credit is not available for purchases in 2012.

Sales tax deduction
If you itemize, you can deduct either your state and local taxes or your sales taxes paid during the year. This deduction is a boon for people who live in states with no or low income taxes. However, the deduction for sales and use taxes instead of state income taxes is scheduled to expire at the end of 2011. To maximize this deduction, you should make any large purchases before the end of the year.

Adoption credit
A tax credit for adoption expenses (adoption fees, court costs, attorney fees, travel, etc.) has been available for many years. However, an enhanced adoption credit is available for adoptions finalized before 2012. The credit is up to $13,360 of adoption expenses. For 2011, this is a nonrefundable credit, meaning you qualify for it even if it exceeds the amount of your 2011 tax liability. This means that you could qualify for a tax refund even if you did not have federal income tax withheld.

-Stephen Fishman, LinkedIn

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